光顺样条函数的再生核表示与计算

光顺样条是散乱数据拟合的理想函数,是噪声数据最优平滑的重要工具。因此,光顺样条的数学表示和计算的研究具有重要的意义。本文在一般的线性微分算子和线性泛函的情况下讨论光顺样条函数的构造和计算,通过构造一个适当的再生核Hilbert空间,使得所讨论的微分算子光顺样条成为该空间中的最小范数问题,再利用投影理论建立了光顺样条函数的再生核表示方法,并得到了插值偏差表达式。作为特例,还给出了奇次多项式光顺样条函数新的简洁的计算方法。     

C2有理插值样条曲线曲面

首先提出一组基函数向量,它具有以下特定的性质：ＢＢ（０）Ｔ＝（０．０,１．０,０．０,０．０）,ＢＢ（１）Ｔ＝（０．０,０．０,１．０,０．０）ＢＢ＇（０）Ｔ＝（－０．５,０．０,０．５,０．０）,ＢＢ＇（１）Ｔ＝（０．０,－０．５,０．０,０．５）ＢＢ″（０）Ｔ＝－（１．０,－２．０,１,０,０．０）,ＢＢ″（１）Ｔ＝（０．０,１．０,－２．０．１．０）。进而研究了以此函数向量的张量积形式定义的有理样条曲面。并得以下结论：（１）插值性;（２）Ｃ２连续性;（３）局部性和可调性。文中还分析了“权”的作用,并指出它与三次Ｂ－样条的类似性。     

拦截弹测量数据处理的建模与仿真

针对拦截弹上实时测得的带有随机干扰的测量值,讨论了测量数据的建模与处理方法,并结合数据处理过程中所涉及到的阶次的确定、样本数的选取和拐点问题提出数据处理的简化方法。最后给出了一个仿真算例     

基于改进平方根UKF双向滤波的单站无源定位算法

针对单站无源定位可观测性弱、观测噪声大而导致的定位精度低、稳定性差和收敛速度慢等问题,在结合平方根无迹卡尔曼滤波(Square-Root Unscented Kalman Filter,SRUKF)以及后向平滑思想的基础上,提出了一种改进SRUKF的双向滤波算法。该算法采用Q-R分解的形式,使用误差协方差的平方根代替协方差参与递推运算,提高了算法的稳定性与运算效率。同时,该算法对状态向量进行扩维,将过程噪声与观测噪声通过非线性系统传播,降低了噪声对滤波精度的影响,并利用当前时刻滤波结果通过Rauch-Tung-Striebel(RTS)后向平滑得到再次前向滤波更高精度的起始值,提高了算法的定位精度与收敛速度。仿真结果表明,新算法在保证实时性的基础上改善了单站无源定位的性能。     

两种解相关算法的DOA估计性能研究

MUSIC算法能对独立信号的波达方向（DOA）进行有效估计,但该算法对相干信号或强相关信号进行DOA估计时,算法性能会随着相关系数的增加而急剧恶化甚至失效．针对该问题,利用前后向空间平滑技术与修正MU—SIC算法进行去相关,研究了它们去相关的基本原理及优缺点;利用MUSIC算法通过实验仿真对相关信号的波达方向估计性能进行了研究,分析了信号间相关系数对前后向空间平滑算法与修正MUSIC算法的测向性能的影响,并验证了算法去相关的有效性．     

利用样条插值法计算摩擦离合器瞬时转速曲线

研究了履带车辆主离合器瞬时转速测试方法,在数据处理过程中两次运用样条插值算法,较好地解决主、被部分实测转速精度低及转速数据长度不一致的问题,得到较为理想的瞬时转速曲线。     

A theory of war finance

This paper analyses the financial and war‐spending policies of a state that faces a conflict in which defeat would result in the loss of sovereign power and in which the material consequences, conditional on avoiding defeat, are stochastic. The analysis takes explicit account of the historical experiences of lenders, who face debt repudiation if the state to whom they have lent is defeated and who also face partial default if the material consequences of the war are unfavorable for the debtor state, even if it avoids defeat. In this analysis, the state uses war debt to smooth expected consumption intertemporally in response to temporary war spending, and the state also uses contingent debt servicing to insure realized consumption against the risk associated with the material consequences of the war. An important innovation in the analysis is to treat the equilibrium amount of war spending, the state's resulting probability of avoiding defeat, as well as the equilibrium amount of borrowing as a set of endogenous variables to be determined simultaneously.     

Demand forecasting by temporal aggregation

Demand forecasting performance is subject to the uncertainty underlying the time series an organization is dealing with. There are many approaches that may be used to reduce uncertainty and thus to improve forecasting performance. One intuitively appealing such approach is to aggregate demand in lower‐frequency “time buckets.” The approach under concern is termed to as temporal aggregation, and in this article, we investigate its impact on forecasting performance. We assume that the nonaggregated demand follows either a moving average process of order one or a first‐order autoregressive process and a single exponential smoothing (SES) procedure is used to forecast demand. These demand processes are often encountered in practice and SES is one of the standard estimators used in industry. Theoretical mean‐squared error expressions are derived for the aggregated and nonaggregated demand to contrast the relevant forecasting performances. The theoretical analysis is supported by an extensive numerical investigation and experimentation with an empirical dataset. The results indicate that performance improvements achieved through the aggregation approach are a function of the aggregation level, the smoothing constant, and the process parameters. Valuable insights are offered to practitioners and the article closes with an agenda for further research in this area. © 2013 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 60: 479–498, 2013     

基于备件需求预测的两步法理论

在对备件需求时间序列研究的基础上,结合指数平滑法和Croston法的特点,分析了指数平滑法与两步法的原理,通过对指数平滑法和两步法方差的研究,得到两步法是指数平滑法的一般形式的结论,为两步法的进一步研究提供一定的理论支撑。     

基于测速定轨的一类自适应样条滤波方法

提出了一种测速定轨的实时算法。该方法基于样条表示飞行轨道速度参数 ,在只有多个测速元信息的情况下 ,建立了自适应Kalman滤波递推算法 ,实时给出了较高精度的飞行器轨道参数